The second TB MAC paper on TB diagnostics and modelling, “Impact and cost-effectiveness of current and future tuberculosis diagnostics: the contribution of modelling” has been accepted for publication in IJTLD. In this paper experts discuss the contribution of modelling to harness and estimate the potential impact of current and new TB diagnostics. Look for the paper in the perspectives section of IJTLD.
Author List:
D. W. Dowdy, R. Houben, T. Cohen, M. Pai, F. Cobelens, A. Vassall, N. A. Menzies, G. Gomez, I. Langley, S. B. Squire, R. White
SUMMARY:
The landscape of diagnostic testing for tuberculosis (TB) is changing rapidly, and stakeholders need urgent guidance on how to develop, deploy and optimize TB diagnostics in a way that maximizes impact and makes best use of available resources. When decisions must be made with only incomplete or preliminary data available, modelling is a useful tool for providing such guidance. Following a meeting of modelers and other key stakeholders organized by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium, we propose a conceptual framework for positioning models of TB diagnostics. We use that framework to describe modelling priorities in four key areas: Xpert w MTB/RIF scale-up, target product profiles for novel assays, drug susceptibility testing to support new drug regimens, and the improvement of future TB diagnostic models. If we are to maximize the impact and cost-effectiveness of TB diagnostics, these modelling priorities should figure prominently as targets for future research.
