Application Opens: 2013-10-09
Application Closes: 2013-11-10 at midnight GMT
Summary of funding available across the four research questions
Applications are invited for funding to support work on any of four research questions identified at the recent TB MAC meeting on ‘Modelling to support rational introduction of new drugs and regimens’. Two awards of US$72,500 are available (ie the total funds available across all four research questions = US$145,000).
Title: Modelling to support rational introduction of new drugs and regimens
Reference: TB MAC RFA 3
Duration: Up to 9 months
Funds available: US$145,000 in total across all four research questions
Number of awards available: 2 (Two awards of US$72,500)
Submission opening date: Oct 13th 2013
Submission closing date: Nov 10th 2013
Decisions announced: Dec 9th 2013
Contact: Olivia Ross-Hurst


Details of research question #4: Modelling to Understand the Epidemiological Impact and Market Impact of Harmonized Regimens for MDR-TB 



The lack of harmonization of treatment regimens for MDR-TB both within and among countries results in fragmentation of overall demand for MDR-TB medicines and hurts the market. There have been some efforts to harmonize and rationalize regimens but some argue that different regimen options are required in order to adapt treatment for each individual patient’s needs and the resistance patterns in a country or region. There is no clear or objective way to capture the population level health benefits that result from more specific regimens. On the other hand it is clear that more fragmented markets leads to higher prices, longer lead times and a less sustainable market for MDR-TB medicines. New regimens for MDR-TB or TB more generally will be introduced in this context.

Traditionally, separate modelling approaches have been used to project the impact of using treatment regimens on MDR-TB disease dynamics and to understand the market impact of using more harmonized regimens. Assessing the total effect of harmonizing regimens requires explicitly capturing the impact of this at the population level and for the market as a whole.

Work Required

An urgent need has been identified for a new type of model which includes the dynamic epidemiological effects of treatment harmonization and the market impacts of treatment harmonization with feedback loops to capture the inter-relationships. A combined model is needed that captures the most important features of both the market side and the epidemiological characteristics. Such a model should be calibrated to existing epidemiological data and market parameters such as price.

The model should include 1) A disease progression model that includes resistance spread (2) A market impact model that considers differences in prices between products and potentially decrease in prices as a result of volume shift. The time horizon of the model should be: 5-10 years. The geography and scale is: 1 large MDR-TB high burden country e.g. Russia or China where there sufficient data on resistance patterns for second-line drugs. The model structure should be usable for other countries and scaleable to be a global model. The first phase parameterization and validation could be done for the selected country.


To develop model(s) that project the epidemiological impact and market impact of harmonizing treatment regimens for MDR-TB, including new regimens, within a particular country and across countries


1. To develop a model that included a disease progression model that includes resistance spread and a market impact model that considers differences in prices between products and potentially decrease in prices as a result of volume shift.
2. To parameterize and validate the model for a selected country.
3. To make projections over 5-10 years in at least 1 large MDR-TB high burden country
4. Show that the model structure is usable for other countries and scaleable to a global model.
Assessment criteria

All applications will be reviewed by expert reviewers. All applications to this research question will be scored against the following criteria:

  • Is the research question and plan well-described
  • Is the research team qualified to conduct this research
  • Is the budget and timeline appropriate for the proposed activity
  • Is the proposal likely to meet the aim and objectives outlined in the RFA
  • Is the dissemination and impact maximisation plan adequate
  • Does the proposal explain how models and data will be shared for maximum public utility


1) One manuscript (5-20 pages):
i) draft submitted to TB MAC by grant end date
ii) submitted for publication to an international peer-reviewed scientific journal by grant end date + 3 months
2) One presentation (15-30 slides):
i) submitted to TB MAC by the grant end date, and
ii) presented at a TB MAC or other international meeting/conference by grant end date + 6 months.


A contract will be issued from LSHTM either to an institution or to an applicant personally in the form of consultancy fees.
Standard terms
Work done with and for TB MAC is subject to a standard set of terms that require information sharing between all groups working within TB MAC. A full set of terms is available on request.
Members of the TB MAC Secretariat and Advisory Panel are not eligible for this award.
Applications should include a proposal limited to three pages (excluding references, and with a minimum of 11 point font size). Proposals should include: (i) an introduction to the topic; (ii) description of previous work in the area by the applicants; (iii) description and justification of the intended approach; (iv) timeline for the proposed work; (v) budget and its justification. In addition, the principal applicant should provide a separate short bio-sketch (one page summary of qualifications, research interests, key funding publications and major sources of research support).
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